Annual Report 15-Apr-2008
Item 6. Management's Discussion and Analysis or Plan of Operation

The following discussion and analysis of our financial condition and results of operations should be read in conjunction with our financial statements and the related notes appearing elsewhere in this Annual Report. This discussion and analysis may contain forward-looking statements based on assumptions about our future business. Our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements as a result of certain factors, including but not limited to those set forth under the heading of "Risk Factors" in the "Business" section in this Annual Report.

Overview

We develop, manufacture, market and sell natural non-alcoholic and "New Age" beverages, candies and ice creams. "New Age Beverages" is a category that includes natural soda, fruit juices and fruit drinks, ready-to-drink teas, sports drinks and water. We currently manufacture, market and sell five unique product lines:

Reed's Ginger Brews,

Virgil's Root Beer and Cream Sodas,

China Colas,

Reed's Ginger Candies, and

Reed's Ginger Ice Creams

We sell most of our products in specialty gourmet and natural food stores (estimated at 4,000 smaller or specialty stores and 3,000 supermarket format), supermarket chains (estimated at 7,500 stores), retail stores and restaurants in the United States and, to a lesser degree, in Canada, Europe and other international territories. We primarily sell our products through a network of natural, gourmet and independent distributors. We also maintain an organization of in-house sales managers who work mainly in the stores serviced by our natural, gourmet and mainstream distributors and with our distributors. We also work with regional, independent sales representatives who maintain store and distributor relationships in a specified territory. In Southern California, we have our own direct distribution system, but we have plans to direct these sales to distributors.

The following table shows a breakdown of net sales with respect to our distribution channels for the periods set forth in the table:

                                                                    Natural,
        Direct sales to      % of                        % of      gourmet and
        large retailer      total      Local direct     total      mainstream       % of
            accounts         sales     distribution      sales     distributors     total    Total sales
2007   $        3,395,110        26   $     1,567,058        12   $    8,096,645        62   $ 13,058,813
2006            1,853,439        18         1,039,966        10        7,590,948        72     10,484,353
2005            1,536,896        16           751,999         8        7,181,390        76      9,470,285
2004            1,983,598        22           395,601         4        6,599,166        74      8,978,365

Historically, we have focused our marketing efforts on natural and gourmet food stores. In 2003, we expanded our marketing efforts to include more mainstream markets. These efforts included selling our products directly to:

large retail accounts, such as Costco, BJ Wholesale, and Cost Plus World Markets, and

the natural food section of mainstream supermarket chains, such as Safeway, Kroger's, and several other national and regional chains, such as Ralph's and Bristol Farms.

In addition, since 2003, we have introduced new products and offer specialty beverage packaging options not typically available in the marketplace into the marketplace that have contributed to our growth in sales. These products include a 5-liter "party keg" version of our Virgil's Root Beer and Cream Soda, 12-ounce long neck bottles of our Virgil's Cream Soda and 750 ml. size bottles of our Reed's Original Ginger Brew, Extra Ginger Brew and Spiced Apple Brew. In addition, we recently introduced three new diet flavors of Virgil's Root Beer, Virgil's Cream Soda and Virgil's Black Cherry Cream Soda and a new 7 ounce version of our Reed's Extra Ginger Brew for mini-bars and on-premise accounts. These new products and packaging options are being utilized in our marketing efforts.


We gauge the financial success of our company by a number of different parameters. Because our industry typically values companies on a top-line basis, one of our main company goals is to increase net sales. Our net sales have increased each year during the period from 2003 to 2007, as follows:

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Net sales $ 6,800,000 $ 9,000,000 $ 9,500,000 $ 10,500,000 $ 13,059,000

We believe that the increase in net sales over this period comes from three factors:

increases in our core of national distribution to natural and gourmet food stores,

increases in our mainstream supermarket chains, and

increases in our direct sales to large retailers.

Almost as important as increasing our net sales are increasing our gross margins. We continue to work to reduce costs related to production of our products. However, we have encountered difficulties in increasing our gross margins due to certain factors, including:

inefficiencies commensurate with a start-up period for the Brewery that we purchased in 2002 as our West Coast production facility,

higher freight, glass and production expenses due to the increase in the cost of fuel and increases in the price of ingredients in our products, and

increases in the use of promotions and discounting,

In 2002, we purchased and outfitted the Brewery, in part to help reduce both production costs and freight costs associated with our west coast sales. Gross margins decreased from 24.8% in 2002 to 19.5% in 2003 as a principal result of the start-up of the Brewery. Gross margins increased to 20.9% in 2004 as a principal result of attaining greater functionality and efficiencies in our operation of the Brewery by our own personnel and being able to produce and ship products in the western half of the United States from a west coast facility. However, in 2005, gross margins decreased to 18.2% as a principal result of increases in fuel prices, which put downward pressure on our margins due to increased freight expenses and increased glass and production costs, both of which are sensitive to fuel costs. In February 2006, we decided to raise our prices on the Ginger Brew line for the first time in 16 years. In 2006, gross margins recovered to 19.6% partially as a result of a price increase on our core Reed's Ginger Brew line and offset by increased pressure from more expensive production, ingredients and packaging expenses due to fuel related price increases. In 2007, our gross margins decreased to 15.5% partially as a result of increased promotions and increased freight and commodity costs.

In addition, our west coast Brewery facility is running at 41% of capacity. We have had difficulties with the flavor of our Ginger Brew products produced at the Brewery. As a result, we continue to supply our Ginger Brew products at the Brewery from our east coast co-packing facility, thereby causing us to incur increased freight and warehousing expenses on our products. Management is committed to selling a high quality, great tasting product and has elected to continue to sell certain of our Ginger Brew products produced from our east coast facility on the west coast, even though it negatively impacts our gross margins. As we are able to make the Brewery become more fully utilized, we believe that we will experience improvements in gross margins due to freight and production savings.


On December 12, 2006, we completed the sale of 2,000,000 shares of our common stock at an offering price of $4.00 per share in our initial public offering. The public offering resulted in gross proceeds of $8,000,000 to us. In connection with the public offering, we paid aggregate commissions, concessions and non-accountable expenses to the underwriters of $800,000, resulting in net proceeds of $7,200,000, excluding other expenses of the public offering. In addition, we have agreed to issue, to the underwriters, warrants to purchase up to approximately an additional 200,000 shares of common stock at an exercise price of $6.60 per share (165% of the public offering price per share), at a purchase price of $0.001 per warrant. The underwriters' warrants are exercisable for a period of five years commencing on the final closing date of the public offering. From August 3, 2005 through April 7, 2006, we had issued 333,156 shares of our common stock in connection with the public offering. We sold the balance of the 2,000,000 shares in connection with the public offering (1,666,844 shares) following October 11, 2006.

From May 25, 2007 through June 15, 2007, we completed a private placement to accredited investors only, on subscriptions for the sale of 1,500,000 shares of common stock and warrants to purchase up to 749,995 shares of common stock, resulting in an aggregate of $9,000,000 of gross proceeds. We Company sold the shares at a purchase price of $6.00 per share. The warrants issued in the private placement have a five-year term and an exercise price of $7.50 per share. We paid cash commissions of $900,000 to the placement agent for the private placement and issued warrants to the placement agent to purchase up to 150,000 shares of common stock with an exercise price of $6.60 per share. We also issued additional warrants to purchase up to 15,000 shares of common stock with an exercise price of $6.60 per share and paid an additional $60,000 in cash to the placement agent as an investment banking fee. Total proceeds received, net of underwriting commissions and the investment banking fee and excluding other expenses of the private placement, was $8,040,000.

Trends, Risks, Challenges, Opportunities That May or Are Currently Affecting Our Business

Our main challenges, trends, risks and opportunities that could affect or are affecting our financial results include but are not limited to:

Fuel Prices - As oil prices continue to increase, our packaging, production and ingredient costs will continue to rise. We have attempted to offset the rising freight costs from fuel price increases by creatively negotiating rates and managing freight. We will continue to pursue alternative production, packaging and ingredient suppliers and options to help offset the affect of rising fuel prices on these expenses.

Low Carbohydrate Diets and Obesity - Our products are not geared for the low carbohydrate market. Consumer trends have reflected higher demand for lower carbohydrate products. Despite this trend, we achieved an increase in our sales growth in 2007. We monitor these trends closely and have started developing low-carbohydrate versions of some of our beverages, although we do not have any currently marketable low-carbohydrate products.

Distribution Consolidation - There has been a recent trend towards continued consolidation of the beverage distribution industry through mergers and acquisitions. This consolidation results in a smaller number of distributors to market our products and potentially leaves us subject to the potential of our products either being dropped by these distributors or being marketed less aggressively by these distributors. As a result, we have initiated our own direct distribution to mainstream supermarkets and natural and gourmet foods stores in Southern California and to large national retailers. Consolidation among natural foods industry distributors has not had an adverse affect on our sales.

Consumer Demanding More Natural Foods - The rapid growth of the natural foods industry has been fueled by the growing consumer awareness of the potential health problems due to the consumption of chemicals in the diet. Consumers are reading ingredient labels and choosing products based on them. We design products with these consumer concerns in mind. We feel this trend toward more natural products is one of the main trends behind our growth. Recently, this trend in drinks has not only shifted to products using natural ingredients, but also to products with added ingredients possessing a perceived positive function like vitamins, herbs and other nutrients. Our ginger-based products are designed with this consumer demand in mind.

Supermarket and Natural Food Stores - More and more supermarkets, in order to compete with the growing natural food industry, have started including natural food sections. As a result of this trend, our products are now available in mainstream supermarkets throughout the United States in natural food sections. Supermarkets can require that we spend more advertising money and they sometimes require slotting fees. We continue to work to keep these fees reasonable. Slotting fees in the natural food section of the supermarket are generally not as expensive as in other areas of the store.


Beverage Packaging Changes - Beverage packaging has continued to innovate, particularly for premium products. There is an increase in the sophistication with respect to beverage packaging design. While we feel that our current core brands still compete on the level of packaging, we continue to experiment with new and novel packaging designs such as the 5-liter party keg and 750 ml. champagne style bottles. We have further plans for other innovative packaging designs.

Packaging or Raw Material Price Increases - An increase in packaging or raw materials has caused our margins to suffer and has negatively impacted our cash flow and profitability. We continue to search for packaging and production alternatives to reduce our cost of goods.

Cash Flow Requirements - Our growth will depend on the availability of additional capital infusions. We have a financial history of losses and are dependent on non-banking sources of capital, which tend to be more expensive and charge higher interest rates. Any increase in costs of goods will further increase losses and will further tighten cash reserves.

Interest Rates - We use lines of credit as a source of capital and are negatively impacted as interest rates rise.

Critical Accounting Policies

Our financial statements are prepared in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America, or GAAP. GAAP requires us to make estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts in our financial statements including various allowances and reserves for accounts receivable and inventories, the estimated lives of long-lived assets and trademarks and trademark licenses, as well as claims and contingencies arising out of litigation or other transactions that occur in the normal course of business. The following summarize our most significant accounting and reporting policies and practices:

Trademark License and Trademarks. Trademark license and trademarks primarily represent the costs we pay for exclusive ownership of the Reed's registered trademark in connection with the manufacture, sale and distribution of beverages and water and non-beverage products. We also own the China Cola and Virgil's registered trademarks. In addition, we own a number of other trademarks in the United States, as well as in a number of countries around the world. We account for these items in accordance with SFAS No. 142, "Goodwill and Other Intangible Assets." Under the provisions of SFAS No. 142, we do not amortize indefinite-lived trademark licenses and trademarks.

In accordance with SFAS No. 142, we evaluate our non-amortizing trademark license and trademarks quarterly for impairment. We measure impairment by the amount that the carrying value exceeds the estimated fair value of the trademark license and trademarks. The fair value is calculated by reviewing net sales of the various beverages and applying industry multiples. Based on our quarterly impairment analysis the estimated fair values of trademark license and trademarks exceeded the carrying value and no impairments were identified during the years ended December 31, 2007 or 2006.

Long-Lived Assets. Our management regularly reviews property, equipment and other long-lived assets, including identifiable amortizing intangibles, for possible impairment. This review occurs quarterly or more frequently if events or changes in circumstances indicate the carrying amount of the asset may not be recoverable. If there is indication of impairment of property and equipment or amortizable intangible assets, then management prepares an estimate of future cash flows (undiscounted and without interest charges) expected to result from the use of the asset and its eventual disposition. If these cash flows are less than the carrying amount of the asset, an impairment loss is recognized to write down the asset to its estimated fair value. The fair value is estimated at the present value of the future cash flows discounted at a rate commensurate with management's estimates of the business risks. Quarterly, or earlier if there is indication of impairment of identified intangible assets not subject to amortization, management compares the estimated fair value with the carrying amount of the asset. An impairment loss is recognized to write down the intangible asset to its fair value if it is less than the carrying amount. Preparation of estimated expected future cash flows is inherently subjective and is based on management's best estimate of assumptions concerning expected future conditions. No impairments were identified during the years ended December 31, 2007 or 2006.

Management believes that the accounting estimate related to impairment of our long lived assets, including our trademark license and trademarks, is a "critical accounting estimate" because: (1) it is highly susceptible to change from period to period because it requires management to estimate fair value, which is based on assumptions about cash flows and discount rates; and (2) the impact that recognizing an impairment would have on the assets reported on our balance sheet, as well as net income, could be material. Management's assumptions about cash flows and discount rates require significant judgment because actual revenues and expenses have fluctuated in the past and we expect they will continue to do so.


In estimating future revenues, we use internal budgets. Internal budgets are developed based on recent revenue data for existing product lines and planned timing of future introductions of new products and their impact on our future cash flows.

Accounts Receivable. We evaluate the collectibility of our trade accounts receivable based on a number of factors. In circumstances where we become aware of a specific customer's inability to meet its financial obligations to us, a specific reserve for bad debts is estimated and recorded which reduces the recognized receivable to the estimated amount our management believes will ultimately be collected. In addition to specific customer identification of potential bad debts, bad debt charges are recorded based on our historical losses and an overall assessment of past due trade accounts receivable outstanding. The allowance for doubtful accounts and returns and discounts is established through a provision for returns and discounts charged against sales. Receivables are charged off against the allowance when payments are received or product returned. The allowance for doubtful accounts and returns and discounts as of December 31, 2007 was approximately $407,000.

Inventories. Inventories are stated at the lower of cost to purchase and/or manufacture the inventory or the current estimated market value of the inventory. We regularly review our inventory quantities on hand and record a provision for excess and obsolete inventory based primarily on our estimated forecast of product demand and/or our ability to sell the product(s) concerned and production requirements. Demand for our products can fluctuate significantly. Factors that could affect demand for our products include unanticipated changes in consumer preferences, general market conditions or other factors, which may result in cancellations of advance orders or a reduction in the rate of reorders placed by customers. Additionally, our management's estimates of future product demand may be inaccurate, which could result in an understated or overstated provision required for excess and obsolete inventory.

Results of Operations

Twelve Months Ended December 31, 2007 Compared to Twelve Months Ended December 31, 2006

Net sales increased by $2,574,460, or 24.6%, to $13,058,813 in 2007 from $10,484,353 in 2006. The increase in net sales was primarily due to an increase in our Virgil's product line of Root Beer and Cream Sodas, our Reed's Ginger Brews and ginger Candies. The increase in sales was also primarily due to an increase in net sales due to newly introduced mainstream distributors and an increase in our existing distribution channels of natural food distributors and retailers, partially offset by a decrease in sales to international customers.

The Virgil's brand, which includes Root Beer, Cream Soda and Black Cherry Cream soda, Diet Root Beer, Diet Cream Soda and Diet Black Cherry Cream Soda, realized an increase in net sales of $1,715,000, or 44.9% from $3,823,000 in 2006 to $5,538,000 in 2007. The increase was the result of increased sales in Root Beer of $985,000 or 33.3% to $3,945,000 in 2007 from $2,960,000 in 2006, increased sales in Cream Soda of $201,000 or 31.8% to $834,000 in 2007 from $633,000 in 2006, and increased sales in Black Cherry Cream Soda of $193,000 or 86.5% to $416,000 in 2007 from $223,000 in 2006. The increase in the Virgil's Root Beer was due, in part, to an increase in five-liter party kegs of $316,000 or 71.9%, to $756,000 in 2007 from $440,000 in 2006. In addition, the increase in sales in the Virgil's Brand was the result of three diet products introduced in 2007. The three new products include Diet Root Beer, which realized $99,000 in net sales for 2007, Diet Cream Soda and Black Cherry Cream soda which realized net sales of $57,000 and $52,000, respectively in 2007.

The Reeds Ginger Brew Line increased $720,000 or 13.2% from $5,450,000 in 2006 to $6,170,000 in 2007. The increase was the result of increased sales across all Reed's line of products, but mostly due to increased sales of Reed's Extra Ginger Brew of $317,000 or 11.8% to $3,011,000 in 2007 from $2,694,000 in 2006, Reed's Original Ginger Brew of $86,000 or 6.8% to $1,350,000 in 2007 from $1,264,000 in 2006 and Reed's Premium Ginger Brew of $84,000 or 9.4% to $978,000 in 2007 from $894,000 in 2006. The Reed's Cherry Ginger Brew and Reed's Spice Apple Cider realized an increase in sales of 20.3% and 2.5%, respectively, from 2007 to 2006.


Net sales of candy increased $110,000, or 13.7% from $802,000 in 2006 to $912,000 in 2007. The increase in candy sales was mostly due to increased crystallized ginger sales of $93,000 or 17.2% to $633,000 in 2007 from $540,000 in 2006.

The product mix for our two most significant product lines, Reed's Ginger Brews and Virgil's sodas was 47.2% and 42.4%, respectively of net sales in 2007 and was 52.0% and 36.5%, respectively of net sales in 2006.

Commencing in 2007, the Company executed several distribution contracts with distributors who service retailers that cater to the mainstream consumer. In 2007, of the sales noted above, net sales to distributors that cater to mainstream consumers totaled $428,000. For sales to distributors that specialize in natural foods, net sales increased $1,857,000 or 23.6% from $7,874,000 in 2006 to $9,731,000 in 2007. For sales to other mainstream customers, including chains, club stores and mass merchants, net sales increased $534,000 or 21.9% from $2,437,000 in 2006 to $2,971,000 in 2007. These increases were partially offset by a decrease in net sales to international customers of $52,000 or 29.8% to $122,000 in 2007 from $174,000 in 2006.

We expect to increase sales in 2008. Our new direction in sales is to focus our sales efforts predominantly in the grocery channels, where we have an estimated 10,500 supermarket stores carrying our products.

Cost of sales increased by $2,612,803, or 31.0%, from $8,426,774 in 2006 to $11,039,577 in 2007. As a percentage of net sales, cost of sales increased from 80.4% in 2006 to 84.5% in 2007. Cost of sales as a percentage of net sales increased by 4.1%, primarily as a result of increased discounting and promotions, increased production expenses, increased packaging costs and increased ingredient costs.

Gross profit decreased $38,343 or 1.9% from $2,057,579 in 2006 to $2,019,236 in 2007. As a percentage of net sales, gross profit decreased from 19.6% in 2006 to 15.5% in 2007. Fuel and commodity price increases have caused an increase in our costs of production from our co-packer. Fuel price increases have increased our costs of delivery. In addition, we had increased costs of packaging costs. If fuel and commodity prices continue to increase, we will have more pressure on our margins.

Our gross profit for beverages before the affects of promotions and discounting was approximately 40% for 2007. After promotions and discounts, we realized gross margin of 15.5%. To improve gross margins in 2008, we have set a date to raise prices on the Reed's Ginger Brew line by 13% bringing it more in line with our competitors in the natural soda category. The impact of the price increase will raise our gross margin before the affects of promotions and discounting to 45% with the expectation of increasing the net gross margin 2008. In addition, we are implementing systems to track and manage the approval and use of promotions and discounting to maintain a higher net gross margin. Finally, we are performing a competitive bidding process for our third party co-packing production. We expect to select a co-packer by the third quarter 2008. We expect to lower our costs of production, thus further improving our gross margin while maintaining our product quality.

Operating expenses increased by $3,643,956, or 94.3%, from $3,864,169 in 2006 to $7,508,125 in 2007 and increased as a percentage of net sales from 36.9% in 2006 to 57.5% in 2007. The increase was primary the result of increased selling and general and administrative expenses, partially offset by one-time charges in 2006. Based on the reduction in the sales staff and other sales support staff, we do not anticipate an increase in operating expenses in 2008.

Selling expensed increased by $3,234,293 or 239.2%, from $1,352,313 in 2006 to $4,586,806 in 2007. The increase in selling expenses is due to increased salaries of sales personnel, general selling expenses, promotional costs, non-cash stock option amortization expense, recruiting costs of sales personnel and public relations. Salaries of sales personnel increased $1,572,000 or 236.6% from $664,000 in 2006 to $2,236,000 in 2007. This increase was due to increased personnel to support the initiative to increase sales of our product to the mainstream consumer through mainstream stores and distributors that support mainstream retailers. General selling expenses increased $779,000 or 226.5% from $344,000 in 2006 to $1,123,000 in 2007. The increase in general selling expenses was due to the increased support for the increased sales personnel such as travel, road-shows and trade shows. Promotional expenses increased $335,000 or 177.2%, from $189,000 in 2006 to $524,000 in 2007. The increase in promotional expenses was due to increased activities of advertising, demonstrations and sampling. Non-cash stock option amortization expense increased $344,000 or 5,733.3% from $6,000 in 2006 to $350,000 in 2007. This increase is due to stock options issued to new sales personnel in 2007. Also, selling expense increased from 2007 versus 2006 due to new initiatives in 2007 of public relations and recruiting fees for selling personnel of $104,000 and $66,000, respectively. In March 2008, we announced our new strategic direction in sales, whereby our focus is to strengthen our product placements in our estimated 10,500 supermarkets . . .

 
     
REED'S Inc. 13000 South Spring St. Los Angeles, CA 90061 phone: 1-800-99 REEDS • 1-800-997-3337
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